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The number of harbor supernsets continued to congest, and the Year of the Tiger is difficult to change the tension situation.

  • The number of harbor supernsets continued to congest, and the Year of the Tiger is difficult to change the tension situation.
"At present, the congestion of Ningbo Port is eased. After all, the Spring Festival shipments have passed." On February 10, Lao Zhao said in the phone, this is the 20th Spring Festival shipped in the Spring Festival.

Lao Zhao is a senior sea cargo transportation business agent, commonly known as "freight forwarding".

The first financial reporter found that the Spring Festival Foreign Trade Maritime Market has appeared the situation of "first-ranking", first of all, the peak of shipping leads to the congestion of the port, the freight is high, after the Spring Festival, the workers have a holiday, with the decline in export goods, shipping price There is a fall.

But the old people and other industries are forecast, "suppression" is short, and the domestic import and export goods will still be restored to the past, and the port congestion and the maritime price will continue to operate.


Yantian Port, the interior of the bank, the container loading and unloading is busy, and the Chinese map

"Super Boot" and congestion

One month before the Spring Festival, China's epidemic prevention boxes were more tight, and the foreign trade export supply chain suffered a new round of impact, regional blocked measures and large-scale nucleic acid screening, plus the peak of all enterprises in the Spring Festival, leading to Ningbo Port The domestic major foreign trade ports in China continue to congest.

On January 27, Ningbo Meitong Container Terminal Co., Ltd. issued a "Notice of Customer Notice", since mid-December 2021, "some shipping company superbacked receiving phenomenon is increasingly serious, leading to serious super-load box of our carriage Some routes are in front of Hong Kong (previous voyage cabinet box) and the middle transfer box have been far exceeding the mouth, helpless, our company negotiated with the shipping company, for a serious super-in-delivery route, The shipping company provides a list of shipping shipping, and our company is strictly in accordance with the list of shipping companies. "

Talking about the shipping company superbacked, a shipping industry told reporters: "For example, the ship has 2000TEU (standard box) capacity (cabin), in order to receive more, more than 4000TEU or even 6000TEU The class is given to the customer. When the customer sends 6000TEU goods to the terminal, it is found that only 2000TEU's goods can be shipped, while other goods that cannot be shipped, they can only be accumulated in the terminal, so the more super, and more back, more The more super, and finally put the pier is strict. "

How serious is the superbache? Taking an Oriental Miami Ship as an example, its capacity is more than 8,000 TEUs, which are hung by 4 ports, with an average of more than 2,000 TEUs per harbor. However, the first financial reporter noted that a ship period was the Oriental Miami Ship of January 19th. In front of Ningbo Port, there were 3900TEU before the opening of Hong Kong, and the export forecast was 2200TEU. A total of 6100TEU, almost 3 times the actual available cabin (average 2,000 TEUs per port).

In the industry, the container super release is the sales "set" of the shipping company, similar to the airline super selling ticket, but this also further highlights the hustle force in the Year of the Tiger.

The congestion of Ningbo Port is not a special case, and the foreign trade transport-intensive South China Port is still congested, and the shortage of isk is still grim. A few days ago, the first financial reporter saw in some port terminal in South China, and the container loading and unloading of the large port area, the container loading and unloading was busy, Yantian Port, Shekou Port, and Guangzhou Port container heavy cabin exports.

In order to ship early, some companies have to transport containers to the port, waiting for the cabinet to go to the cabinet. As a result, many ports have been put on the cabinet limit flow measures, that is, 10,000 containers to enter the gate to enter the gate. Yantian Port, Guangzhou Port, Shanghai Port, Ningbo Port and other ports have this measures.

"When the port is full, the trailer driver has to transport the heavy cabinet to the stack of the stack in the port, and the flyer has to pay the box fee, and the price is very confusing." A freaker told reporters.

"We have already spent more than 50 foreign trade liners in the first week of the Spring Festival. From the current shipping period and work box, we can foresee the harbor situation in the first quarter is good, throughput is worth looking forward to." South China Interior of a port revealed.

"In fact, every year before the Spring Festival, the domestic manufacturing enterprises have a holiday. Most trailer drivers also want to go home for the New Year. The European and American domestic goods wanted to ship before the Spring Festival, and the Chinese manufacturing plant opened horsepower production. It will lead to the port pier to continue to congest. "Lao Zhao said.

This wave of shipping in the Spring Festival is also related to domestic manufacturing companies to open horsepower production. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's domestic GDP increased by 4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2021.

According to data from the global integrated procurement manager (PMI) issued in January 2022, despite the challenges of delivery delays and new crown epidemics, the field of manufacturing in the fourth quarter of 2021 still showed a very optimistic situation. In December 2021, the Chinese manufacturing industry PMI index has increased, and it has broken 50.3 for two consecutive months. With the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, the Chinese economy still shows the expansion mode.

The Spring Festival shipping market also makes the trailer driver difficult. The first financial reporter saw in a South China Port "trailer driver exchange group", the Spring Festival is constantly "high-priced cash to find a car unloading".

Supply and demand tight will continue

After continuously distributing before the Spring Festival, domestic ports and shipping will usher in a short gentle and fall during the Spring Festival.

Before the Spring Festival, the old Zhao was judged according to the experience. "The first week after the Spring Festival, the price of the second week should fall". The real situation is indeed, as he expected, the freight has fallen.

According to Lao Zhao, the current booking is not difficult, Taking Myssen 40-foot cabinet, from Shanghai to the US Los Angeles, the freight rate is 30,000 US dollars, falling back to $ 17,000. "During the Spring Festival, the factory holiday, workers, and trailer drivers are going home for the New Year. There is no more goods can be exported, but the ship's ship is still going to stop China's major ports, and natural freight prices have fallen."

Although the recent price fell, according to the experience of Lao Zhao, two weeks later, with the production and export volume of the domestic manufacturing plant, the freight price will rebound. He expects the price to rise to around $ 30,000, which is quite right with last year.

According to previous year data, a 40-foot container from China to the US shipping price is usually 1000-220,000 dollars. Since May 2021, China's container freight rate in China has continued to rise, and in August 2021, it has exceeded $ 30,000 / 40 feet containers, which increased by more than ten times, which continued to remain in high.

If the price is not coming, it is related to the imbalance of supply and demand. From the supply and demand relationship, it can be roughly preused to escape the Spring Festival and even the whole year's shipping market.

In a senior people in South China, a senior people in 2021, the global effective capacity loss is about 30%, and the loss rate is 10% ~ 20% in 2022, and the corresponding capacity is about 3.5 million teu. It is expected to deliver 169 ships in 2022. Only 1062,000 TEUs increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the demand for marine will increase by 5.9%. In recent years, in order to effectively apply capacity, shipping companies are stepping up construction of new ships, but it is difficult to deliver in the short term. For example, shipping giant Maji has set a lot of new ships.

The senior people in the port expects that 2022 global capacity is still difficult to alleviate, congestion, and the sea freight is difficult to return to the normalization level before the epidemic, "2022 supply and demand relationship is difficult to change, and it is expected that the supply and demand pressure will be 2023, 2024 began to relieve ".

Maersk said that due to the high demand in China's Spring Festival, the class has always been quite nervous, but the expected demand level will soon return to normal. It also predicts that the global economic expansion of the global economy will continue to grow in 2022, "Unfortunately, the problem of goods congestion, shipping period and capacity limitations still hinder logistics supply chain. Slowly run, there is no other effective solution to the temporary trick in the short term. "