The United States will impose tariffs on China next week. Is there room for manoeuvre?
- Author:Hank
- Source:sofreight
- Release Date:2019-12-07
Trump may be at the NATO summit in the United Kingdom, and everyone's eyes are now on the new tariff threat he launched.
Trump said this week that he didn't think it was too urgent to conclude a deal with China and that it needed to be carefully considered, while also announcing new tariffs on other countries. Trump has indicated that tariffs will be imposed on Chinese goods as planned, while steel tariffs have been imposed on Brazil and Argentina and threatened France.
As of today, China and the United States have not reached a textual agreement on "Phase One". According to the tariff levy plan announced by Trump, the United States will impose a second levy on China's 300 billion list of goods on December 15. 15% tariff.
In terms of amount, the second batch of goods in the 300 billion list corresponds to the total US imports from China in 2018 of 155.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 29% of the total US imports from China, which is second only to the 200 billion list .
From the perspective of the proportion of U.S. imports from China, the second batch of goods from the 300 billion list in 2018 accounted for 87.1% of U.S. imports from China, and its dependence on China ’s imports is much higher than all other taxable lists. Once the tariff is levied, it will have a greater impact on the trade between China and the United States.
From the perspective of the exemption list, currently USTR has successively announced 16 exemption lists, of which 8 are involved in the 34 billion list, 3 are involved in the 16 billion list, and 5 are involved in the 200 billion list.
Among them, the newly announced exemption list since October is mainly concentrated in the field of 200 billion list commodities. According to our calculations, the current exemption caps for the 34 billion, 16 billion, and 200 billion lists are 61.6%, 43.2%, and 20.1%, respectively.
As the 300 billion list is still in the exclusion application stage (2019/10 / 31-2020 / 1/31), USTR has not yet issued an exemption list corresponding to this batch of products.
From the perspective of industry distribution, electronic equipment and parts, machinery equipment and parts and toys are the core components of this list of goods, and the total import value of the three accounts for nearly 80%.
In absolute terms, motors, electrical, audiovisual equipment and their accessories (US $ 59.6 billion, accounting for 38%), nuclear reactors, boilers, mechanical appliances and parts (US $ 41.2 billion, accounting for 27%) and toys, games or Sports goods and their accessories (US $ 21.9 billion, accounting for 14%) accounted for 79% of the total import value of these three industries, and the three countries' US dependence on imports from China (2018) were as high as 83%, 94%, and 89%.
300 billion list The second batch of goods is mainly distributed in motors, electrical, audio-visual equipment and their accessories, nuclear reactors, boilers, mechanical appliances and parts, toys, games or sporting goods and their accessories, footwear, leggings and similar products and Parts and plastics and its products industry.
If all the new (300 billion, 15%) + (250 billion, 5%) landed on December 15th, the tax rate for all goods exported to the United States would be 30%. In theory, Trump could raise the tax rate to 45%.
In short, December 15 should be an important node. Whether or not an agreement is reached, there will be important changes in Sino-US relations. At present, Christmas is approaching. This is a big consumption season. It is an important job for Trump to win public opinion. It is reasonable that he should not postpone the increase in tariffs. Of course, Trump cannot be judged with normal thinking.
Trump said this week that he didn't think it was too urgent to conclude a deal with China and that it needed to be carefully considered, while also announcing new tariffs on other countries. Trump has indicated that tariffs will be imposed on Chinese goods as planned, while steel tariffs have been imposed on Brazil and Argentina and threatened France.
As of today, China and the United States have not reached a textual agreement on "Phase One". According to the tariff levy plan announced by Trump, the United States will impose a second levy on China's 300 billion list of goods on December 15. 15% tariff.
In terms of amount, the second batch of goods in the 300 billion list corresponds to the total US imports from China in 2018 of 155.3 billion US dollars, accounting for 29% of the total US imports from China, which is second only to the 200 billion list .
From the perspective of the proportion of U.S. imports from China, the second batch of goods from the 300 billion list in 2018 accounted for 87.1% of U.S. imports from China, and its dependence on China ’s imports is much higher than all other taxable lists. Once the tariff is levied, it will have a greater impact on the trade between China and the United States.
From the perspective of the exemption list, currently USTR has successively announced 16 exemption lists, of which 8 are involved in the 34 billion list, 3 are involved in the 16 billion list, and 5 are involved in the 200 billion list.
Among them, the newly announced exemption list since October is mainly concentrated in the field of 200 billion list commodities. According to our calculations, the current exemption caps for the 34 billion, 16 billion, and 200 billion lists are 61.6%, 43.2%, and 20.1%, respectively.
As the 300 billion list is still in the exclusion application stage (2019/10 / 31-2020 / 1/31), USTR has not yet issued an exemption list corresponding to this batch of products.
From the perspective of industry distribution, electronic equipment and parts, machinery equipment and parts and toys are the core components of this list of goods, and the total import value of the three accounts for nearly 80%.
In absolute terms, motors, electrical, audiovisual equipment and their accessories (US $ 59.6 billion, accounting for 38%), nuclear reactors, boilers, mechanical appliances and parts (US $ 41.2 billion, accounting for 27%) and toys, games or Sports goods and their accessories (US $ 21.9 billion, accounting for 14%) accounted for 79% of the total import value of these three industries, and the three countries' US dependence on imports from China (2018) were as high as 83%, 94%, and 89%.
300 billion list The second batch of goods is mainly distributed in motors, electrical, audio-visual equipment and their accessories, nuclear reactors, boilers, mechanical appliances and parts, toys, games or sporting goods and their accessories, footwear, leggings and similar products and Parts and plastics and its products industry.
If all the new (300 billion, 15%) + (250 billion, 5%) landed on December 15th, the tax rate for all goods exported to the United States would be 30%. In theory, Trump could raise the tax rate to 45%.
In short, December 15 should be an important node. Whether or not an agreement is reached, there will be important changes in Sino-US relations. At present, Christmas is approaching. This is a big consumption season. It is an important job for Trump to win public opinion. It is reasonable that he should not postpone the increase in tariffs. Of course, Trump cannot be judged with normal thinking.