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The United States will be the main beneficiary of the Belt and Road Initiative

  • Author:Hank
  • Source:Xinde Maritime
  • Release Date:2019-06-05
Shun Tak Maritime News June 4 news, a new study by the UK's Global Economics Consulting Center for Economic and Commercial Research (Cebr) estimates that by 2040, the impact of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative on the global economy may increase global GDP every year. 7.1 trillion US dollars. That is to say, the Belt and Road Initiative will bring global GDP growth by 4.2% in 2040 (up 8.3% in 2019), and it is expected that more than 50 countries will have annual GDP growth of more than 10 billion US dollars.

Not only China, but the world economy will benefit a lot from this initiative. In particular, the agency said that the biggest potential beneficiary of the “Belt and Road” initiative may be the United States, although the United States is not directly involved in the project. ”

The sheer size of the US economy means that it will benefit from the indirect effects of global GDP growth. Although the US GDP boost is only 1.4% (far lower than most other major economies), the absolute size of the US economy is so large that it exceeds the absolute growth of any other economy except China.

Followed by Russia, then Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, India and the Netherlands.

The report predicts that by 2040, Central Asia and Russia's GDP will grow by 18%, benefiting the most. In addition, it will bring 6%, 5%, and 5% additional growth to GDP in Central Europe, Western Europe and East Asia.

The report also compares the Belt and Road Initiative with the roads, dams and canals that the Romans had previously built.

The first Roman road was Apia Avenue, built in 312 BC. Eventually Rome built 382 major road networks connecting the UK with Africa and the Middle East and connected to the Persian Royal Mile. It is estimated that the Belt and Road land network is expected to cover 400,000 km (250,000 miles) of roads, although the paved roads are only 80,000 km (50,000 miles). Today, a one-kilometer non-highway will cost at least $5 million to $10 million, so the 80,000-kilometer paving may cost $800 billion.

China's “One Belt, One Road” project includes not only road infrastructure, but the Mercator China Institute in Berlin estimates that as part of the project, it will also include 60,000 km (37,000 miles) of new or upgraded roads. Therefore, this network is only a little shorter than the Roman road system, but know that most of this project will be in place by 2040, which means that the construction speed is more than 10 times faster than the Romans.

The report pointed out that it is important to recognize that the “Belt and Road” includes not only physical and electronic infrastructure, but also the substantial improvements it can bring to global trade facilitation. The roads in Rome were originally built for military purposes, but ultimately promoted trade.