Oil prices fell sharply, breaking through the US$80 mark. Is there a signal of a fall in sea freight
- Author:Maintenance network
- Source:Maintenance network
- Release Date:2026-06-18
On June 16, local time, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with New York WTI crude oil futures closing at US$76.05 per barrel, a one-day drop of 5.82%; London Brent crude oil futures closing at US$78.96 per barrel, a single-day drop of 5.06%, both hitting their lowest closing levels in the past three months.
International oil prices fell below $80
The market generally believes that this round of sharp correction in oil prices is mainly affected by the conclusion of a phased memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran.Investors expect that normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume and that after Iranian crude oil re-enters the international market, global energy supply tensions are expected to ease.
Iran oil exports expected to resume
According to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, after the United States and Iran formally sign a memorandum of understanding, Iran will be allowed to resume oil and fuel exports, and some restrictive measures involving banking, shipping, insurance and other related fields will also be exempted.On the same day, an Iranian tanker loaded with crude oil left Chabahar Port and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman. The market regarded this as an important signal for the gradual recovery of Iran's energy exports.At the same time, U.S. President Trump said that the United States and Iran plan to hold a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on June 19 and promote the full restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Uncertainty remains over Strait of Hormuz
Although market sentiment has improved significantly, industry organizations remind that the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully returned to normal operations.Ship trackers and energy analysts point out that the current number of commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels.Issues such as risk ratings of insurance institutions, waterway safety assessments, and shipowner operating arrangements will still take time to gradually recover.Some analysts believe that even if the political agreement is successfully implemented, it may take weeks or even months for global energy transportation to return to normal.
Wall Street institutions cut oil price forecasts
As supply risks ease, many international investment banks have begun to adjust oil price forecasts.Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 from US$90/barrel to US$80/barrel, and expected the average price in 2027 to be approximately US$75/barrel.Morgan Stanley predicts that with the gradual recovery of crude oil exports from Iran and the Gulf region, the global crude oil market supply will significantly improve.
As oil prices fall, will shipping surcharges fall at the same time?For the shipping market, the drop in oil prices will undoubtedly help ease the pressure on shipping companies’ fuel costs.However, judging from the current market conditions, the drop in fuel prices does not mean that ocean freight rates will drop immediately.Recently, many liner companies including CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, etc. have successively increased freight rates on routes from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and North Africa.At the same time, peak season surcharge (PSS), comprehensive rate increase surcharge (GRI) and EU ETS related charges remain high.The core driving factors for the current increase in freight rates on the Asia-Europe route are still the large-scale diversions caused by the Red Sea crisis, the decline in capacity turnover efficiency and the increase in the demand for stocking in traditional peak seasons, rather than simple changes in fuel costs.
The market is concerned about whether freight rates can fall back
Historically, fuel costs typically account for only a portion of container liner operating costs.If the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal and international oil prices continue to fall, there will indeed be room for adjustment in BAF (fuel surcharge) in the future, but the impact on overall freight rates may be limited in the short term.Compared with the trend of oil prices, the market is more concerned about whether the situation in the Red Sea has substantively eased.If the Red Sea channel is restored to traffic in the future and a large amount of shipping capacity bypassing the Cape of Good Hope returns to the market, the supply of global container shipping capacity will increase significantly, and then freight rates and various surcharges may face greater downward pressure.
Industry Observation: International oil prices fell below US$80, indicating that the market is reassessing supply risks in the Middle East.For the shipping industry, this will help ease the pressure on fuel costs, but it will be difficult to change the current pattern of high freight rates in the short term.In the coming months, the progress of the restoration of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's crude oil exports, and whether the Red Sea route can be reopened will remain key variables affecting the global energy transportation and shipping market trends.
International oil prices fell below $80
The market generally believes that this round of sharp correction in oil prices is mainly affected by the conclusion of a phased memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran.Investors expect that normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume and that after Iranian crude oil re-enters the international market, global energy supply tensions are expected to ease.
Iran oil exports expected to resume
According to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, after the United States and Iran formally sign a memorandum of understanding, Iran will be allowed to resume oil and fuel exports, and some restrictive measures involving banking, shipping, insurance and other related fields will also be exempted.On the same day, an Iranian tanker loaded with crude oil left Chabahar Port and sailed out of the Gulf of Oman. The market regarded this as an important signal for the gradual recovery of Iran's energy exports.At the same time, U.S. President Trump said that the United States and Iran plan to hold a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on June 19 and promote the full restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Uncertainty remains over Strait of Hormuz
Although market sentiment has improved significantly, industry organizations remind that the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully returned to normal operations.Ship trackers and energy analysts point out that the current number of commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal levels.Issues such as risk ratings of insurance institutions, waterway safety assessments, and shipowner operating arrangements will still take time to gradually recover.Some analysts believe that even if the political agreement is successfully implemented, it may take weeks or even months for global energy transportation to return to normal.
Wall Street institutions cut oil price forecasts
As supply risks ease, many international investment banks have begun to adjust oil price forecasts.Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 from US$90/barrel to US$80/barrel, and expected the average price in 2027 to be approximately US$75/barrel.Morgan Stanley predicts that with the gradual recovery of crude oil exports from Iran and the Gulf region, the global crude oil market supply will significantly improve.
As oil prices fall, will shipping surcharges fall at the same time?For the shipping market, the drop in oil prices will undoubtedly help ease the pressure on shipping companies’ fuel costs.However, judging from the current market conditions, the drop in fuel prices does not mean that ocean freight rates will drop immediately.Recently, many liner companies including CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, etc. have successively increased freight rates on routes from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and North Africa.At the same time, peak season surcharge (PSS), comprehensive rate increase surcharge (GRI) and EU ETS related charges remain high.The core driving factors for the current increase in freight rates on the Asia-Europe route are still the large-scale diversions caused by the Red Sea crisis, the decline in capacity turnover efficiency and the increase in the demand for stocking in traditional peak seasons, rather than simple changes in fuel costs.
The market is concerned about whether freight rates can fall back
Historically, fuel costs typically account for only a portion of container liner operating costs.If the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal and international oil prices continue to fall, there will indeed be room for adjustment in BAF (fuel surcharge) in the future, but the impact on overall freight rates may be limited in the short term.Compared with the trend of oil prices, the market is more concerned about whether the situation in the Red Sea has substantively eased.If the Red Sea channel is restored to traffic in the future and a large amount of shipping capacity bypassing the Cape of Good Hope returns to the market, the supply of global container shipping capacity will increase significantly, and then freight rates and various surcharges may face greater downward pressure.
Industry Observation: International oil prices fell below US$80, indicating that the market is reassessing supply risks in the Middle East.For the shipping industry, this will help ease the pressure on fuel costs, but it will be difficult to change the current pattern of high freight rates in the short term.In the coming months, the progress of the restoration of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's crude oil exports, and whether the Red Sea route can be reopened will remain key variables affecting the global energy transportation and shipping market trends.