Can shipping costs rise or fall?1.7 million TEU shipping capacity "disappeared" and 3.
- Author:Maintenance network
- Source:Maintenance network
- Release Date:2026-08-19
The global shipping market is facing a structural dilemma: more and more ships are being built, but effective shipping capacity is getting tighter.
The effective shipping capacity of 1.7 million TEU "disappeared". In early July, many liner companies began to lower spot quotations. The inflection point of spot freight rates was confirmed. The industry generally judged that freight rates would enter a downward channel.The market generally expects that freight rates will peak and fall significantly earlier this year than in previous years, and peak season demand has been brought forward. The pessimistic expectation that a sustained decline will begin in July is gradually increasing.However, actual freight rates did not accelerate as expected.According to the "Global Scheduled Shipping Performance Report" released by maritime consulting agency Sea-Intelligence on July 27, 2026, the global liner punctuality rate has dropped to 62.6% in June 2026, a further decline of 1.9 percentage points from 64.5% in May, and 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period in 2025.This means that nearly 40% of the world's arriving ships cannot arrive at the port as scheduled.The extent of the delays is also of concern.Data shows that the average late arrival time of delayed ships has reached 5.31 days, which is significantly higher than the level of about 3 to 4 days before the epidemic.Sea-Intelligence further calculates that about 5% of global container ship capacity - equivalent to approximately 1.7 million TEU - is "absorbed" by ports and related delays.This size is almost equivalent to Evergreen Marine’s entire fleet.After deducting the historical normal delay benchmark of approximately 2.2%, the additional effective capacity swallowed up still amounts to approximately 1.06 million TEU, which is roughly equivalent to the entire capacity of HMM.At the same time, the latest industry tips released by DHL Global Forwarding show that the containers accumulated at global ports have exceeded 3.7 million TEU.
Two multiple factors continue to “devour” transport capacity 01
The Panama Canal tightens traffic restrictions again. The Panama Canal Authority announced on August 5 that due to the continued decline in water levels, it will tighten the maximum allowable draft depth of the New Panamax locks to 48 feet from August 26, and further reduce it to 47.5 feet from September 3, and the relevant restrictions will continue until further notice.This is another tightening after lowering it to 49 feet on July 24.For container ships, every 1-foot reduction in draft means being forced to reduce the cargo capacity of hundreds of containers.02
European inland shipping "shrinks" Europe's major inland waterways are also in trouble due to extreme weather.According to CCTV News, on August 12, the reading at the Kaub water level station in the middle reaches of the Rhine River in Germany dropped to a record low of 12 centimeters, significantly breaking the previous record of 25 centimeters set in 2018. 03
Typhoon hits China's major ports Typhoon "White Dolphin" became the "last straw" that crushed North Asian ports.According to a report released by Linerlytica on August 11, due to the impact of the typhoon, more than 2.4 million TEU container shipping capacity in North Asia was delayed. Ningbo and Shanghai were the most severely affected ports, and the backlog of ships is expected to take several weeks to gradually clear.As of August 17, one week after the typhoon ended, the average waiting time for ships in Shanghai Port is still more than 4 days.Maersk has successively issued port-hopping notices, canceling the scheduled calls at Shanghai Port for multiple voyages.04
The geo-risk premium has resurfaced and the security situation in the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden has deteriorated sharply.According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on August 5, the Houthi armed forces used multiple ballistic missiles to attack a Saudi oil tanker that day.Since late July, the Houthi armed forces have attacked a total of 8 Saudi oil tankers and intercepted and forced 29 Saudi oil tankers to return in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea.
Samaersk CEO: Congestion has become a structural problem Maersk CEO Ke Wensheng said frankly in the second quarter earnings conference call that the current core constraint of the container shipping industry is no longer ship capacity, but the carrying capacity of ports and inland infrastructure to digest the continued growth of trade flows.In the past three years, Asia's outbound export cargo volume has increased by 25% cumulatively, but total global terminal capacity has only expanded by 10% during the same period.Ke Wensheng warned: "Sooner or later we will hit a production bottleneck." Within two months, Maersk raised its full-year profit forecast for 2026 twice, with the latest expected EBITDA reaching US$10.5 billion to US$12.5 billion.
Four industry observations: In the short term, port congestion and geopolitical risks continue to support freight rates, and the tight supply of effective shipping capacity is difficult to fundamentally reverse.It will take time for the Shanghai Port congestion to resolve and for the Panama Canal water level to recover, and the geopolitical risks in the twin straits have not been substantially alleviated.In the mid-term, we need to pay attention to the following variables: Maersk has released a signal that conditions are ready to return to the Suez Canal in 2026. Once the resumption of sailing is expected, the capacity shrinkage dividend caused by the detour will quickly disappear; at the same time, spot freight rates on the European line have shown signs of loosening, and the freight rate from Shanghai to Rotterdam fell by 5% month-on-month.For cargo owners and freight forwarders, it is recommended to pay close attention to the shipping company's shipping schedule announcements and reserve transportation time in advance; the risk of port hopping and container dumping in Shanghai Port is still high in the near future, and goods involving East China ports should confirm the latest voyage arrangements with the carrier as soon as possible.When 1.7 million TEU shipping capacity is swallowed up by delays and 3.7 million TEU containers are stranded at ports, what really determines the direction of freight rates is no longer the size of the fleet, but the actual turnover capacity of the global logistics network.
The effective shipping capacity of 1.7 million TEU "disappeared". In early July, many liner companies began to lower spot quotations. The inflection point of spot freight rates was confirmed. The industry generally judged that freight rates would enter a downward channel.The market generally expects that freight rates will peak and fall significantly earlier this year than in previous years, and peak season demand has been brought forward. The pessimistic expectation that a sustained decline will begin in July is gradually increasing.However, actual freight rates did not accelerate as expected.According to the "Global Scheduled Shipping Performance Report" released by maritime consulting agency Sea-Intelligence on July 27, 2026, the global liner punctuality rate has dropped to 62.6% in June 2026, a further decline of 1.9 percentage points from 64.5% in May, and 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period in 2025.This means that nearly 40% of the world's arriving ships cannot arrive at the port as scheduled.The extent of the delays is also of concern.Data shows that the average late arrival time of delayed ships has reached 5.31 days, which is significantly higher than the level of about 3 to 4 days before the epidemic.Sea-Intelligence further calculates that about 5% of global container ship capacity - equivalent to approximately 1.7 million TEU - is "absorbed" by ports and related delays.This size is almost equivalent to Evergreen Marine’s entire fleet.After deducting the historical normal delay benchmark of approximately 2.2%, the additional effective capacity swallowed up still amounts to approximately 1.06 million TEU, which is roughly equivalent to the entire capacity of HMM.At the same time, the latest industry tips released by DHL Global Forwarding show that the containers accumulated at global ports have exceeded 3.7 million TEU.
Two multiple factors continue to “devour” transport capacity 01
The Panama Canal tightens traffic restrictions again. The Panama Canal Authority announced on August 5 that due to the continued decline in water levels, it will tighten the maximum allowable draft depth of the New Panamax locks to 48 feet from August 26, and further reduce it to 47.5 feet from September 3, and the relevant restrictions will continue until further notice.This is another tightening after lowering it to 49 feet on July 24.For container ships, every 1-foot reduction in draft means being forced to reduce the cargo capacity of hundreds of containers.02
European inland shipping "shrinks" Europe's major inland waterways are also in trouble due to extreme weather.According to CCTV News, on August 12, the reading at the Kaub water level station in the middle reaches of the Rhine River in Germany dropped to a record low of 12 centimeters, significantly breaking the previous record of 25 centimeters set in 2018. 03
Typhoon hits China's major ports Typhoon "White Dolphin" became the "last straw" that crushed North Asian ports.According to a report released by Linerlytica on August 11, due to the impact of the typhoon, more than 2.4 million TEU container shipping capacity in North Asia was delayed. Ningbo and Shanghai were the most severely affected ports, and the backlog of ships is expected to take several weeks to gradually clear.As of August 17, one week after the typhoon ended, the average waiting time for ships in Shanghai Port is still more than 4 days.Maersk has successively issued port-hopping notices, canceling the scheduled calls at Shanghai Port for multiple voyages.04
The geo-risk premium has resurfaced and the security situation in the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden has deteriorated sharply.According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on August 5, the Houthi armed forces used multiple ballistic missiles to attack a Saudi oil tanker that day.Since late July, the Houthi armed forces have attacked a total of 8 Saudi oil tankers and intercepted and forced 29 Saudi oil tankers to return in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea.
Samaersk CEO: Congestion has become a structural problem Maersk CEO Ke Wensheng said frankly in the second quarter earnings conference call that the current core constraint of the container shipping industry is no longer ship capacity, but the carrying capacity of ports and inland infrastructure to digest the continued growth of trade flows.In the past three years, Asia's outbound export cargo volume has increased by 25% cumulatively, but total global terminal capacity has only expanded by 10% during the same period.Ke Wensheng warned: "Sooner or later we will hit a production bottleneck." Within two months, Maersk raised its full-year profit forecast for 2026 twice, with the latest expected EBITDA reaching US$10.5 billion to US$12.5 billion.
Four industry observations: In the short term, port congestion and geopolitical risks continue to support freight rates, and the tight supply of effective shipping capacity is difficult to fundamentally reverse.It will take time for the Shanghai Port congestion to resolve and for the Panama Canal water level to recover, and the geopolitical risks in the twin straits have not been substantially alleviated.In the mid-term, we need to pay attention to the following variables: Maersk has released a signal that conditions are ready to return to the Suez Canal in 2026. Once the resumption of sailing is expected, the capacity shrinkage dividend caused by the detour will quickly disappear; at the same time, spot freight rates on the European line have shown signs of loosening, and the freight rate from Shanghai to Rotterdam fell by 5% month-on-month.For cargo owners and freight forwarders, it is recommended to pay close attention to the shipping company's shipping schedule announcements and reserve transportation time in advance; the risk of port hopping and container dumping in Shanghai Port is still high in the near future, and goods involving East China ports should confirm the latest voyage arrangements with the carrier as soon as possible.When 1.7 million TEU shipping capacity is swallowed up by delays and 3.7 million TEU containers are stranded at ports, what really determines the direction of freight rates is no longer the size of the fleet, but the actual turnover capacity of the global logistics network.