Alphaliner just released the latest forecast of 2019 international shipping market
- Author:Jim
- Source:Search network
- Release Date:2019-01-05
Alphaliner, an international shipping consultancy and analysis agency, said in a recent review of the past year that the situation of shipping companies will look better in 2019, but a series of measures are needed to substantially increase the benefits and need to do well for uncertainties. ready.
For global shipping companies, 2018 is a tough year, with excess capacity, weak freight rates and high fuel prices severely depressing their profits.
For global shipping companies, 2018 is a tough year, with excess capacity, weak freight rates and high fuel prices severely depressing their profits.
Despite the optimism last year, there are prospects for improvement this year, but excess capacity still drags the market. At the beginning of the year, the rate has risen, indicating that the shipping company's days will be better, but the container shipping spot rate fell again in the second half of the year, and the overall closing level was lower than 12 months ago.
In addition, a total of 1.3 million teu of new capacity entered the market, slightly higher than the influx of new capacity in 2017, and the number of scrapped ships decreased to about a quarter of the previous year.
According to Alphaliner, this has increased the total size of the container fleet by 5.7% to 22.3 million teu. Although the number of idle ships is also increasing, this is not enough to reduce excess capacity in the market, which is reflected in the rates and the profitability of liner companies.
In addition, a total of 1.3 million teu of new capacity entered the market, slightly higher than the influx of new capacity in 2017, and the number of scrapped ships decreased to about a quarter of the previous year.
According to Alphaliner, this has increased the total size of the container fleet by 5.7% to 22.3 million teu. Although the number of idle ships is also increasing, this is not enough to reduce excess capacity in the market, which is reflected in the rates and the profitability of liner companies.
In addition, the liner company was overwhelmed. Last year, oil prices also rose sharply, but fell again before the end of the year. Overall, this has given shipping companies a bigger fuel bill, and they are currently working to optimize their fleet to comply with the new emissions regulations that came into effect early next year.
This fact means that many ships will be temporarily suspended for the installation of scrubbers, while other ships will be simply scrapped – possibly helping to reduce capacity and improve the market this year.
In addition, compared with this year's fuel price, the fall in oil prices at the end of 2018 also provided a better starting point for liner companies.
But although the freight rate has improved near the end of last year, there are still several unknown factors in the profitability of the industry this year. The biggest concern is the trade war between China and the United States, which means that due to higher tariffs, the flow of goods between the world's two largest economies has decreased.
This fact means that many ships will be temporarily suspended for the installation of scrubbers, while other ships will be simply scrapped – possibly helping to reduce capacity and improve the market this year.
In addition, compared with this year's fuel price, the fall in oil prices at the end of 2018 also provided a better starting point for liner companies.
But although the freight rate has improved near the end of last year, there are still several unknown factors in the profitability of the industry this year. The biggest concern is the trade war between China and the United States, which means that due to higher tariffs, the flow of goods between the world's two largest economies has decreased.
Given the large uncertainty in the Sino-US trade war and global trade volume growth, it remains to be seen whether the freight rate will increase in 2019.
The analyst also pointed out that it is expected that a new capacity of about 1.15 million teu will be put into the market in 2019, but capacity growth may be lower than 2018 due to factors such as adapting to new environmental regulations next year. Despite this, the overall state of the industry will remain highly dependent on the liner company's ability and willingness to maintain strict discipline.
“In addition, we need more ships to scrap than 2018, so that we can more strongly prove that the market is optimistic.”
The analyst also pointed out that it is expected that a new capacity of about 1.15 million teu will be put into the market in 2019, but capacity growth may be lower than 2018 due to factors such as adapting to new environmental regulations next year. Despite this, the overall state of the industry will remain highly dependent on the liner company's ability and willingness to maintain strict discipline.
“In addition, we need more ships to scrap than 2018, so that we can more strongly prove that the market is optimistic.”